Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
